|The Price of Liberty
After the Storm – The 11 Stages of the Crash
by Nathan Barton © 2012
Crash of 2009 - Collapse
Steve, a good on-line friend of mine and a very wild activist in the cause of liberty, lowering taxes, and embarrassing and horrifying the establishment sent me this article. I've boiled it down to the list and then providing my own slant on it.
After the Storm – The 11 Stages of the Crash
From an article by Jeff Thomas, International Man
Ten Years Down and Ten Years Up
Economic wizard (and favourite ‘Uncle’) Harry Schultz stated back in the early 2000′s that what he anticipated was “ten years down and ten years up.” ... However, a depression is not at all like that. It is more like a town after a hurricane has hit. The storm may have been swift, but the recovery is not.... If we look at the economic collapses of the past, (inclusive of their possible knock-on effects, such as hyperinflation and destruction of the currency), from the fall of the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany, to Argentina and Zimbabwe – take your pick – the pattern is extremely similar.
Also, consider that the stages themselves are like dominoes – they almost always fall in order. The reason? Details change in history, but human nature remains the same....
Stages of The Crash The first three have already occurred.
1 INITIAL CRASHES
2 INITIAL KNOCK-ON EFFECTS OF CRASHES
3 IMMEDIATE ACTIONS BY GOVERNMENT
4 SECOND WAVE OF CRASHES
5 INTERNATIONAL TRADING PARTNERS REACT
6 GOVERNMENT INSTITUTES DESPERATE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE MEASURES
7 ECONOMY REACTS IN LOCKSTEP TO GOVERNMENT ACTIONS
I would argue that we already HAVE hyperinflation, based on the "value" of gold and silver. It is NOT silver and gold that have GAINED value; it is the dollar that has LOST value. By straight calculation, the dollar is worth less than 3% of what it was in 1965, in silver, and only 2% of what it was in 1973 compared to gold. You see it in SOME prices: when a soda costs $2 in a vending machine today and cost a nickel in 1960; or a basic car cost $695 in 1970 and $28,000 today. But MUCH of the real inflation, even in the last decade, has been hidden by the enormous technological advances (not just in electronics and data) and the wondrous efficiency and productivity of the world of the last twenty years. Ultimately, though, the last straw will be too much for the camel, and all will come crashing down, bringing us to the 8th step.
8 SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE
The same is true of extensive homelessness. People move back in with other families, or get vouchers to rent a motel, or if they have to live in their car, often have a van or camper or pickup from better days that isn't so noticeable as a family camping beside a Model T. And with 3 times as many people as in 1930, it is harder to see the homeless, especially with shelters and all.
Food and fuel shortages are directly related to higher prices, and the distribution system's failure (related to fuel shortages and cash flow), but electrical power shortages are related to maintenance more than other factors. But the real question is WHY these four factors are present.
Except in Detroit, homes are not being destroyed: they are simply being abandoned by families moving somewhere else or because they cannot afford things like water and electricity bills. These services are turned off and the houses become uninhabitable. It does happen: I see many houses on the reservations and in rural areas that are abandoned, some for years or even decades. And I see houses that have 12 or more people living in them! The process is more complex with food, fuel, and power, but here we see the evil hand of government; shutting down power stations and refineries and distribution points for environmental purposes or due to regulatory requirements are likely to be a major factor. As conditions grow worse, the government interference will get worse.
9 SOCIAL COLLAPSE
Perhaps here in the US we will not see as MANY food riots as in Egypt or Haiti or Indonesia, butf we already have some. Flash-mob robberies of stores are a growing phenomenon; we saw food riots after Katrina, and can see near-riots before or after any significant natural event: tornado, hurricane, blizzard, or flood. As government policies make urban gardening and farming in general more difficult, and as regulations and economics concentrate food processing into fewer and fewer locations with more and more restrictions, any disruption in transportation can lead to significant and almost instant shortages and that inevitably leads to some kind of disturbance.
Tax revolt? Well, to a degree, the US is always in some sort of tax revolt: but it is clear that more and more people are dropping out of the system entirely. Again, we are already seeing squatter's rebellions (that word is probably too harsh) in urban areas. The Occupy Movement itself is an example of such. I do agree with Jeff that all of this will grow worse, but we are already seeing all these things to some degree.
10 MARTIAL LAW
To a large degree we are already seeing this. Enhanced security in various federal and state agencies is a given, and the diversion of various agencies to "special task forces" is a well-practiced technique. As is contracting for "services" which include bringing arms and ammunition with you, as well as being able to draw from government stocks. We are also seeing more and more "random" killings, especially by cops and not just in urban and inner-city areas. Frankly, they are "commonplace" even now, and even in small communities. And where killings do not happen, beatings and even torture are frequent events, and hidden more than actual killings. The key here is "when do the gloves come off?"
If revolution is to occur, it will happen at this point. Many people will feel that they have nothing to lose, and anger will be at its peak. If revolution does take place, it will not be an organized movement as such. It will be spontaneous, and breakouts will manifest themselves like popcorn popping, largely at random, with ever-increasing frequency. At some point, it may possibly evolve into something more organized.
Nathan: Jeff is right: "IF revolution is to occur..." Because it may NOT occur, or may be very limited. The outbreaks of which he speaks WILL be contained UNLESS it is a significant percent of the population in a given area (multiple counties) AND unless local officials: police and county and city officials join and are visible. Otherwise they will be dismissed as criminals and terrorists and dealt with quickly and relatively brutally. But the only way to be sure that the continuing collapse DOES end in rebellion is to have MULTIPLE organizations planning both to take advantage of these flash-uprisings AND able to sustain themselves over a wide area, such as an entire state or multi-state area. And even then, the greatest danger to the revolutionaries, even WITH a common philosophy (which is unlikely), is other revolutionary groups and NOT the "government forces."
However, Jeff does not take into account any potential for outside intervention, whether it is governmental or some version of a mass migration (voluntary or forced) of outsider squatters. And he does not touch on the potential for rebellions and revolution based on ethnic or cultural or racial divisions: whether that is hispanic or white supremist or black nationalist or something else: even a coalition as the Occupy movement seemed to be forming.
SUMMARY: Jeff's process deserves a LOT of study and meditation, and should trigger a LOT of planning for us to survive and regain our liberties in the middle of collapse which is very likely to be worldwide. But since much of the world is already farther along in this process, the situation here in North America is likely to be very traumatic. A LOT of us will not survive.
ArchivesThe End is NOT Near
The Washington Post's Spewing of Spin