Crash of 2009 - Collapse
Steve, a good on-line friend of mine and a very wild activist in the cause of liberty, lowering taxes, and embarrassing and horrifying the establishment sent me this article. I've boiled it down to the list and then providing my own slant on it.

After the Storm – The 11 Stages of the Crash
From an article by Jeff Thomas, International Man
Ten Years Down and Ten Years Up
Economic wizard (and favourite ‘Uncle’) Harry Schultz stated back in the early 2000′s that what he anticipated was “ten years down and ten years up.” ... However, a depression is not at all like that. It is more like a town after a hurricane has hit. The storm may have been swift, but the recovery is not.... If we look at the economic collapses of the past, (inclusive of their possible knock-on effects, such as hyperinflation and destruction of the currency), from the fall of the Roman Empire to Weimar Germany, to Argentina and Zimbabwe – take your pick – the pattern is extremely similar.

Also, consider that the stages themselves are like dominoes – they almost always fall in order. The reason? Details change in history, but human nature remains the same....

Stages of The Crash The first three have already occurred.
1 INITIAL CRASHES

• Crash of the residential property market
• Crash of the commercial property market
• Crash of the stock market

Nathan: We've all seen that the effects of these crashes have NOT gone away, after more than four years: I see it on the Colorado Front Range, on the Colorado Western Slope, even in Wyoming and Nebraska and South Dakota (all hit less hard). Things are MUCH worse off than they were in 2008.

2 INITIAL KNOCK-ON EFFECTS OF CRASHES

• Loss of homes
• Loss of jobs
• Inflation

Nathan: Again, these effects are STILL with us and STILL growing: more and more people are losing homes, jobs continue to disappear, and although even so-called experts and even some Austrian-school economists tell us that "inflation" is not bad, we see it every day. The dollar supposedly has ONLY lost "28%" of its value in the last decade, yet prices for food, fuel, many construction materials, and much else are TWICE what they were in 2008.

3 IMMEDIATE ACTIONS BY GOVERNMENT

• Bailouts for select groups
• Dramatic increase of debt
• Politicians going in the opposite direction of a real solution

Nathan: The "select groups" are NOT limited to the "1%" by any means: the welfare state has ensured that most (if not all) of the welfare recipients in the nation have been bailed out - and certainly the federal (and most state and local) employees have come through smelling like roses. We are told to worry about the decline of the middle class, but the crunch there is somewhat hidden by the fact that many formerly "upper income" people - including professionals - have slipped down into the middle class or lower, because THEY are not the "select" groups. It is not just Federal debt that has grown: so has public debt of all sectors AND personal debt. Even business debt has grown to an intolerable level. And as in the 1930s, the 1970s, and the 1990s, the politicians have demonstrated either amazing stupidity or cupidity and vile cunning in order to create MORE troubles.

4 SECOND WAVE OF CRASHES

• Major crash in stock market
• Currency plummets
• Increased bankruptcies
• Increased unemployment

Nathan: This is what is being predicted for 2012 - in the last quarter. It may not actually happen until AFTER the new Congress and new (or old) occupant of 1600 PA is in place for another four years. And we are seeing some signs of it right now: the steady climb in the price and "value" of gold and silver and even fuel and other essentials has been going on for at least a quarter now. More and more jobs are disappearing, despite jiggering of the data by government. This (according to this author and others) is just the beginning of a major upward curve.

5 INTERNATIONAL TRADING PARTNERS REACT

• Foreign countries refuse to accept more debt
• Foreign trade slows dramatically

Nathan: Actually, foreign trade HAS already started to slow: the slow death of Europe and Africa are driving this already. Prices of commodities once highly prized in China and Japan and the other industrial and commercial economies of East Asia are dropping although the drop is concealed by the inflation factor of the dollar, as the Chinese economy itself is dangerously unstable. Japan's economic collapse was and is in large part hidden by the earthquake and tsunami, but the signs are there. And as a result, the other countries have less and less to "invest" in American debt.

6 GOVERNMENT INSTITUTES DESPERATE SELF-DESTRUCTIVE MEASURES

• Defaults on debt
• Restrictive tariffs on imports
• Currency controls

Nathan: Remember, inflation is just ANOTHER way to default on debt, and this is happening right now. And although an unbiased outside observer deems the imposition of tariffs and currency controls (already underway, just explained as part of the War on Some Drugs) self-destructive, sometimes (as in the 1930s) government WANTS there to be significant "self-destruction" because THEY figure to be around for the rebuilding. And here in the US, that has happened about every twenty years since 1840, and so far, the FedGov has WON their bet and was around for the rebuilding: a rebuilding which let the FedGov and its controllers and beneficiaries gain more power and more wealth.

7 ECONOMY REACTS IN LOCKSTEP TO GOVERNMENT ACTIONS

• Hyperinflation – dramatic increase in food and fuel costs
• Massive unemployment
• Extensive foreclosures
• Extensive bankruptcies

Nathan: Now we are getting into unknown territory. Even the inflation of the 1930s and the inflation of the 1970s NEVER reached the hyperinflation level (at least in the public eye), and technology has changed the definition of "massive" unemployment. The 1930s saw the extensive bankruptcies and foreclosures (Google "Bankhead-Jones Act" for some ideas), but the FedGov and state governments (for the most part) rode it out. Can they do it again? They THINK that they can.

I would argue that we already HAVE hyperinflation, based on the "value" of gold and silver. It is NOT silver and gold that have GAINED value; it is the dollar that has LOST value. By straight calculation, the dollar is worth less than 3% of what it was in 1965, in silver, and only 2% of what it was in 1973 compared to gold. You see it in SOME prices: when a soda costs $2 in a vending machine today and cost a nickel in 1960; or a basic car cost $695 in 1970 and $28,000 today. But MUCH of the real inflation, even in the last decade, has been hidden by the enormous technological advances (not just in electronics and data) and the wondrous efficiency and productivity of the world of the last twenty years. Ultimately, though, the last straw will be too much for the camel, and all will come crashing down, bringing us to the 8th step.

8 SYSTEMIC COLLAPSE

• Bank closures
• Extensive homelessness
• Food and fuel shortages
• Electric power becomes sporadic, blackouts common

Nathan: Although Jeff presents these as linear, separate events, in reality there are significant amounts of overlap. This is particularly true of things like bank closures. Every year for the last five years, the number of bank closures has been climbing steadily: I have seen this happen impacting even my own family. But these have been hidden by the techniques developed by government and the banking industry since the 1930s. The Bank of Choice closes (is shut down by the regulators) on Thursday and reopens as a branch of Colorado Community Banks the very next day, with the same employees and the same accounts, just new signs and cards, and over the next few months is absorbed by CCB. Most customers and most people driving by a branch office probably assume another buyout or merger and NOT the sudden loss of millions and millions of dollars made up for by the Federal Reserve and the FDIC printing more debt-money.

The same is true of extensive homelessness. People move back in with other families, or get vouchers to rent a motel, or if they have to live in their car, often have a van or camper or pickup from better days that isn't so noticeable as a family camping beside a Model T. And with 3 times as many people as in 1930, it is harder to see the homeless, especially with shelters and all.

Food and fuel shortages are directly related to higher prices, and the distribution system's failure (related to fuel shortages and cash flow), but electrical power shortages are related to maintenance more than other factors. But the real question is WHY these four factors are present.

Except in Detroit, homes are not being destroyed: they are simply being abandoned by families moving somewhere else or because they cannot afford things like water and electricity bills. These services are turned off and the houses become uninhabitable. It does happen: I see many houses on the reservations and in rural areas that are abandoned, some for years or even decades. And I see houses that have 12 or more people living in them! The process is more complex with food, fuel, and power, but here we see the evil hand of government; shutting down power stations and refineries and distribution points for environmental purposes or due to regulatory requirements are likely to be a major factor. As conditions grow worse, the government interference will get worse.

9 SOCIAL COLLAPSE

• Crime rises dramatically (particularly street crime)
• Food riots
• Tax revolts
• Squatters’ rebellions

Nathan: Again, I have my suspicions that we are seeing some of this already. The rise in crime rates is being contained by ever-increasing levels of gun ownership and by the simple fact that many crimes just are NOT reported anymore, because people realize that the police will do nothing to solve the crime. (Indeed, the major reason to report most property crimes today is so that your insurance will pay for the loss, and many people do not have this kind of insurance coverage!) But the KIND of crimes are changing, too, and this brings us to food riots.

Perhaps here in the US we will not see as MANY food riots as in Egypt or Haiti or Indonesia, butf we already have some. Flash-mob robberies of stores are a growing phenomenon; we saw food riots after Katrina, and can see near-riots before or after any significant natural event: tornado, hurricane, blizzard, or flood. As government policies make urban gardening and farming in general more difficult, and as regulations and economics concentrate food processing into fewer and fewer locations with more and more restrictions, any disruption in transportation can lead to significant and almost instant shortages and that inevitably leads to some kind of disturbance.

Tax revolt? Well, to a degree, the US is always in some sort of tax revolt: but it is clear that more and more people are dropping out of the system entirely. Again, we are already seeing squatter's rebellions (that word is probably too harsh) in urban areas. The Occupy Movement itself is an example of such. I do agree with Jeff that all of this will grow worse, but we are already seeing all these things to some degree.

10 MARTIAL LAW

• Creation of special army to address “domestic terrorism” [and concentration camps]
• Random killings become commonplace ["anyone suspected of a crime" and "anyone not submissive"]

As with "declaring war" I suspect that the formal declaration of martial law is almost gone, at least here in the US. Because of the connotations, local, state, and federal agencies are very reluctant to actually do so, and will hide behind emergency declarations and warnings and advisories and alerts which will result in the same thing as martial law, but not "be" that horrible thing. I also think that "special armies" are unlikely: instead, it will simply be that various federal and state agencies will be granted additional powers and fill this role. And perhaps different agencies will fill the same role in different places. This role will also be filled by contractors - mercenaries - as being more likely to trigger nasty responses, and in the hopes of deluding people who WANT to be deluded.

To a large degree we are already seeing this. Enhanced security in various federal and state agencies is a given, and the diversion of various agencies to "special task forces" is a well-practiced technique. As is contracting for "services" which include bringing arms and ammunition with you, as well as being able to draw from government stocks. We are also seeing more and more "random" killings, especially by cops and not just in urban and inner-city areas. Frankly, they are "commonplace" even now, and even in small communities. And where killings do not happen, beatings and even torture are frequent events, and hidden more than actual killings. The key here is "when do the gloves come off?"

11 REVOLUTION
If revolution is to occur, it will happen at this point. Many people will feel that they have nothing to lose, and anger will be at its peak. If revolution does take place, it will not be an organized movement as such. It will be spontaneous, and breakouts will manifest themselves like popcorn popping, largely at random, with ever-increasing frequency. At some point, it may possibly evolve into something more organized.

Nathan: Jeff is right: "IF revolution is to occur..." Because it may NOT occur, or may be very limited. The outbreaks of which he speaks WILL be contained UNLESS it is a significant percent of the population in a given area (multiple counties) AND unless local officials: police and county and city officials join and are visible. Otherwise they will be dismissed as criminals and terrorists and dealt with quickly and relatively brutally. But the only way to be sure that the continuing collapse DOES end in rebellion is to have MULTIPLE organizations planning both to take advantage of these flash-uprisings AND able to sustain themselves over a wide area, such as an entire state or multi-state area. And even then, the greatest danger to the revolutionaries, even WITH a common philosophy (which is unlikely), is other revolutionary groups and NOT the "government forces."

However, Jeff does not take into account any potential for outside intervention, whether it is governmental or some version of a mass migration (voluntary or forced) of outsider squatters. And he does not touch on the potential for rebellions and revolution based on ethnic or cultural or racial divisions: whether that is hispanic or white supremist or black nationalist or something else: even a coalition as the Occupy movement seemed to be forming.

SUMMARY: Jeff's process deserves a LOT of study and meditation, and should trigger a LOT of planning for us to survive and regain our liberties in the middle of collapse which is very likely to be worldwide. But since much of the world is already farther along in this process, the situation here in North America is likely to be very traumatic. A LOT of us will not survive.