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July 07,
2008 1. Russia
is an evil, warmongering, imperialist state that is teaching Georgia,
NATO, and the US who is the big dog, and has carefully crafted this entire
show to put the fear of Russia into NATO and further isolate the US. Well, life isn’t so simple as that – and neither is the Russo-Georgian War. All the big bugaboos are being whipped up for this: 1. The US and even more evil Zionist Israel are working hand in hand to both use and further control Georgia. The US and Israel have been training all the Georgian troops and using this to control the country, even if they failed to do much right. 2. Big Oil is involved, in order to further the construction of a pipeline to ship oil to the West. This is tied into Bush’s plans to invade Venezuela and steal their oil, as well as kill all the caribou in Alaska and annex Canada to prevent the tar-sands and the northern part of the Bakken Play from being exploited. 3. Vladimir Putin, the evil behind the Russian throne (podium, curtain), is orchestrating all this to tip the scales to the Russian side, and reestablish the New Soviet Union in preparation for the final annexation of the European Union, while China is distracted by the Olympics. 4. Cheney has set this up as a pre-October surprise to make it easier either (a) for McCain to win, or (b) allow Bush to stage a coup and cancel the November elections. 5. Bill Clinton, the evil behind the Hillary throne (podium, curtain), is orchestrating all this to force Obama to look even sillier and less in touch, and thus steal the convention from under him. 6. This is the next stage of a plot by a cabal originally created by Alexander the Great, further developed by Constantine the Great, and now led by a combination of Trilateralists, the Secret Klan, and rogue elements of the former KGB and the Society of Sion, and will trigger the invasion of Canaan (Palestine to some) by the forces of Gog and Magog, in alliance with Area 51 aliens. Well, maybe not the last one – at least not quite in that form. The truth is, this is NOT a matter of black or white. Neither Russia nor Georgia (nor even Bush’s America) are all evil or all white-knight. Although, to be honest, there are few white knights around. (I might be willing to name those soldiers and airmen and sailors who are essentially unarmed and bringing relief supplies into Georgia (for BOTH sides of the front lines) as being the closest (and the activists for liberty and freedom from government right there in Georgia itself), but even they are being used as tools to further a whole lot of political agendas. So it doesn’t hurt to look at a few basics: We have to remember that technically, South Ossetia is a province of Georgia, and has about 80-85 percent of their external border with Georgia. However, they have been autonomous (with strong Russian support) for a long time (since 1991 or 1992). 1. Last week, South Ossetian artillery began a more intensive than normal shelling of Georgian border regions: this is not uncommon over the years. There is some possibility that the South Ossetian shelling was in response to Georgian shelling: it is almost impossible to say who started it. 2. After three days of increased shelling by South Ossetian artillery, Georgian forces invaded South Ossetia on Thursday night. 3. Although they used substantial forces, they were not too successful: they failed to even take the capital of Tskhinvali, which isn't too far inside the province. 4. On Friday morning, Russian forces entered South Ossetia and in two days, drove the Georgians out of South Ossetia. 5. Then on Monday, the Russians began a drive rather deep into Georgia, threatening Tbilisi, and cutting off Tbilisi from the Black Sea ports. 6. The Russians also launched a second front, along the Black Sea coast through another province, Abkhazia, which is also secessionist and friendly with Russia. 7. By Tuesday evening/Wednesday AM, the Russians halted offensive operations but were not withdrawing. 8. Everyone around the world was screaming about ceasefires by then, and finally both Russia and Georgia have agreed to a ceasefire. 9. As usual with ceasefires, everyone accused all the participants of not honoring the ceasefire. Even more, everyone is arguing over WHERE to have a ceasefire: which borders, which boundaries, which towns, which bases. 10. Russian troops are supposedly doing nasty things to people and property; Georgians are accused of HAVING done nasty things, when they were in South Ossetia. 11. Various claims are being made, and as a result, everyone is nervous. Even if there isn’t much more fighting in Georgia (including those two provinces which may (or may NOT) be part of Georgia), fighting may happen elsewhere, now or later. Key points to notice: First, a bit of history: 1. Georgia is an old country, was a province of Imperial Russia, and then was an independent Communist state before being made a “republic” of the Soviet Union. 2. South Ossetia was also part of Imperial Russia, and was an “independent” “republic” of the USSR before Stalin (as he was wont to do) arbitrarily made it part of Georgia. 3. Georgia has never really cottoned to the idea of being a province of Russia (or a “republic” of the Soviet Union), and even though Stalin came from there, it wasn’t a happy camper. 4. Ossetians are not (ethnically at least) Georgians, and their antipathy is mutual. 5. Georgian and Ossetian communities (villages) are intermingled throughout the province, maintaining clear ethnic differences and some differences in loyalty. 6. Both of these people are mountain folk – and like most mountain folk, they are stiff-necked, clannish, and often short-tempered. As the saying goes, they’ll fight at the drop of a hat, and will snatch the hat off an enemy’s head to drop. 7. There has been a "peacekeeping force" in the region since 1992, consisting of Russian, Ossetian, and Georgian battalions, and monitored by a force from the Organization on Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE). 8. Russia has been issuing Russian passports to many South Ossetians, although it has not formally claimed it has sovereignty over the area. 9. Georgia has claimed almost constantly since 1992 that Russia wants to take both Ossetia and Abhkazia from Georgia. 10. The artillery/mortar duels have been going on (this time) since at least the beginning of July. It is assumed that the artillery on the Georgian side belongs to the Georgian army, but the artillery on the South Ossetian side may be operated by any number of people. 11. Georgia is considered the US's "best ally" in the region, and the US has military advisors and trainers stationed there, as well as a presence at Georgian military bases, supporting operations in Mesopotamia and Afghanistan. 12. Georgia is trying to join NATO. Russia says this is a deliberate attempt by NATO to encircle and control Russia. 13. Georgia is a key location for the construction of a pipeline or pipelines to bring oil from Kazakhstan to terminals on the Black Sea to ship to Western Europe. 14. The "natural" border between Russia and Georgia is the mountain range that divides North and South Ossetia. 15. North Ossetia is a part of Russia and apparently content to be so. 16. There are actually TWO South Ossetian governments: one which is loyal to Georgia and the other which either wants independence OR unification with Russia. 17. Georgia had to have mobilized and been ready to attack into South Ossetia before the heavier artillery duels began early last week, to have responded so quickly. 18. Georgia can righteously claim to have only been responding to the increased shelling by South Ossetia. 19. Under moral law (the Golden Rule and corollaries), Georgia had a right to respond to the shelling from South Ossetians; however, it is not certain if the response was truly self-defense or not, or if it were not appropriate. 20. Under international law, Georgia did not "initiate" hostilities, since South Ossetia is not an internationally recognized independent country and is considered to be a rebellious province of Georgia. 21. Russia ALSO had to have mobilized and been ready to attack in order to have responded so quickly to the Georgian invasion. 22. Russia can righteously claim to have only been responding to the "invasion" of a friendly territory by Georgia, under the pretext of not recognizing South Ossetia or Abkhazia as parts of Georgia. 23. Under moral law, Russia’s action might also be construed as a proper response on behalf of friends (or even their own citizens, since many do have dual citizenship, apparently) to Georgia’s over-reaction to the initial aggression by South Ossetia – but the Russian response might be excessive. 24. By the same token, Russia CAN be said (under international law) to have initiated hostilities, since it invaded Georgia, even if the initial invasion was into a friendly, rebellious province. Whew! That is a lot of facts. Like I said, it is not a simple situation, like “I shot my brother and made it look like YOU shot my brother so that I could shoot you…” Anyway, on to some conclusions and comments: 1. All three sides (Russian, South Ossetian, and Georgian) can be accused of starting the war. All three GOVERNMENTS share at least some of the blame for the conditions AND for not necessarily thinking through their response. 2. In an international court of law, Georgia probably has the better legal justification for its actions. Of course, remember, we are talking about Nazguli here: legal is NOT moral. 3. Regardless of what else it does, Russia is (so far) the clear winner in this situation, of which the war is just a part (unless the US intervenes on Georgia's side, and maybe even then). (Poland’s response and the US’s sudden acceptance of Poland’s requirements indicate that maybe Russia isn’t going to win everything it wanted out of this.) 4. It is unlikely that this has resolved any of the major causes of conflict in the area, but it MAY have made it possible for such things to be resolved, not necessarily pleasantly: most likely through some form of "ethnic cleansing" to push/eliminate ethnic Georgians in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia, as well as purging any pro-Georgian Ossetians in the area. 5. It is at least possible that Putin orchestrated this whole thing, including the possible Georgian overreaction to the “initial” Ossetian shelling. 6. It is also at least possible that Bush orchestrated this whole thing, including getting someone on the South Ossetian side to do the shelling in the first place. However, I should point out that just because the US and Georgia and Israel are all allies does NOT mean that Georgia did what DC (or Tel Aviv) wanted or did it with their blessing, as many people claim. Allies are very seldom so under the thumb of the stronger partner(s) that they don’t do things that upset, anger, and risk their allies. (Look at Italy’s invasion of the Balkans in 1941, or the war between “allies” Greece and Turkey over Cyprus.) 7. It may be that one or the other of the South Ossetian governments orchestrated the whole thing, for very obvious reasons. 8. It may be that the Georgian government (a "democratic, freely-elected" government) orchestrated the whole thing, again for very obvious reasons. And if they did, likely withOUT sanction by DC or Tel Aviv. 9. An awful lot of people have lost liberty, property, and life. More will do so in the near future, regardless of who "wins" in this situation. The immediate net result (regardless of the future long-term outcome) is that a LOT of people in the region have lost most if not all liberty for the present. Military occupation, even if you are on the right side of the front-line, is no fun in a situation like that; especially when neither side has the benefit of English common law and traditions. 10. Europe’s main concern will be avoiding the shutdown of any pipelines for oil or gas in the area, followed by appeasing Russia to keep them from cutting off supplies. But at the same time, Russia’s current strength is in large part funded by the very sale of that petroleum and it will find it hard to do without that money. It is not a pretty picture. It is a very complex picture. As you might expect, I think that this is something that can be laid squarely at the feet of that disease we call statism. Without all the variety of government that we suffer with, and that the various people in the Caucasus endure, these fights would probably be handled with fisticuffs or pistols at fifty meters, and not 225-mm artillery shells at 50 kilometers, with a peace officer on a horse rather than a battalion of panzers. And inevitably, most Georgians and Ossetians and Abkhazians would pretty much live and let live. Without interference from foreign capitals, including Moscow, Tel Aviv, and DC, things would also much more likely to be a lot more peaceful. What to
do about it?
Nathan Barton is writing this from a wonderful place in the West, which might be in the Black Hills of South Dakota or Wyoming, or might be in one of the Four Corners States. Exactly where it is, the breezes blow with the scent of liberty, and the sound of the pines or the pinions is the sound of freedom. For thousands of years, people have fought and died for the liberty that Americans in the great spaces of the West enjoy, and he writes these commentaries in the hopes that continued generations will be able to do so, until the end of Time. Visit the blog: The Gospel Sower |
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