June 22, 2005
However, before we get to the immigration implications, lets take a look at the so-called baby boomer myth.
For years, Ive been saying that the 76 million baby boomer story is not much of a problem for Social Security. Its a fear story and one built by never claiming that these are births above normal but by omission implying that a huge horde of extra births occurred between 1946 and 1965 when sixteen million lusty servicemen and women returned from the various theaters of World War II. The real number of these births above normal is somewhere between seven and eight million, not 76 million about to wreck havoc on the Social Security system.
Would people be equally stunned if told that 69 million people born between 1946 and 1965 were about to retire? That's about the figure our population would have increased normally and even if World War II had never happened.
This "76 or 77 million" booga-booga scare story is only meant to scare the hell out of people and make them accept increases in payroll taxes which in turn will increase the enormous booty the federal government has been stealing from our supplemental retirement system.
There are not more than seven to eight million baby boomers. This is covered in detail under The Boomer Myth on my web pages.
Heres the latest on the age of todays population:
Anyone born between 1946 and 1965 is somewhere in the red section of Americans from forty to fifty-nine years of age today. More technically, they were that age when the data was gathered prior to June 1, 2004 when the Census Bureau compiled these figures.
Notice that these boomers are dying off just like we all do, but if you take the highest figure, the forty to forty-four year olds, and assume that all four of these categories may once have been that high, the current boomer population would have been much higher. In fact it would have been 91 million. (More on this in a moment)
For comparisons sake, lets break it down even further:
Todays work force pool is the dark blue category plus the red boomers. Those eligible for retirement are in the light blue bars. And the youngsters, those generally not fully in the work force yet although many may have part-time jobs, are represented by green.
The total work force pool, everyone from 20 to 64, totals 175.8 million. But, of course, this includes a great many that are not likely to enter the payroll work force such as housewives, the disabled, and others.
An important thing to notice is that the two twenty year groups that will replace the baby-boomers are as follows. Those twenty to thirty-nine years of age total 82.1 million, and those from infancy to nineteen total 81.5 million. How different is that from the 91 million we just extrapolated to the baby-boomer group?
At best, each of these two groups only differ from the baby boomers by about 10 million. Take out the immigration portion and youve probably got 7 to 8 million in the boomer red portion. The same thing you will find in my Boomer Myth pages, again substantiating the fact that the boomers are not a big problem for Social Security.
The Census is conducted every ten years and each census would therefore include people born or migrated in two of these five year age groups.
Lets look at the 25 to 34 year olds who are here today and were born between 1970 and 1980 and should have shown up in the 1980 Census.
The 1980 Census reported that the U.S. Population had increased 23.2 million. In 1970, the population was 203.3 million and by 1980 it had grown to 226.5 million. This increase came from both births and immigration.
Yet, when you look at the latest data and add together the two age groups of people born in this time period and living here today the number totals 40.0 million. Thats 16.8 million more than were counted in the 1980 Census.
Where did these 17 million additional people come from? They certainly didnt just drop out of the sky.
These people are definitely here now. If they had been born in the United States, they should have shown up in the 1980 Census. Since they are not recorded there, the only logical explanation is that they were born somewhere else and at some unknown time migrated here. Theyre immigrants.
The question then becomes when did these people arrive in the United States? Do they show up in later census figures? And so forth.
Unfortunately, if we compare the number of people who live in the United States now with the Census reports during their respective birthdays we get the following:
This is a tremendous number of immigrants to show up now and not to have shown up in previous census data. Its a third of our estimated total population of 293.7 million.
Census data does not exclude immigrants, as many as can be counted are counted, but these were not.
The most horrendous implication is that they all showed up since the Census of 2000, just five years ago. Does the Bush open borders policy allow for that many immigrants? Whole families in almost all age groups coming across our borders both legally and illegally?
It certainly poses some major questions, doesn't it?
In all fairness, the Census Bureau has maintained that it cannot count everyone. Some indigents, homeless, people living under bridges, and so forth, are difficult to include in any census, especially when some may not want to be counted. Prior to the 2000 Census, and silly as it was, Congress was actually calling for a literal nose count of everyone in the country instead of a statistical projection from a representative sample.
Such a count would be literally impossible. Under the best conditions, with the most efficient and swift census takers, it would mean a virtual shutdown of the nation for at least two days. Everyone would be required to stay home until the census takers arrived. No stores would be open, no planes or trains would operate, the roadways would be deserted except for census takers, hospitals would probably be closed or somehow handled separately, and so forth.
Instead, Congress settled for a larger sample than normal with the usual and more practical statistical projection. The politicians were interested mostly in redefining representational districts and changing the political atmosphere, but the results should have been a more accurate census. And yet, according to the table above, they still missed 8.3 million immigrants today under 15 that they are able to count now.
Remember that all of these Population by Age figures come from estimates of the population since the 2000 Census five years ago. They count people living here now, again taken from projections from smaller samples or other figures. And while the 98.5 million number coming out of these figures cannot possibly be entirely from statistical error, there has got to be something else skewing these numbers. Something is seriously wrong.
Projections from good sampling techniques normally have reliability ranging from two to five or six percent. We can assume the Census Bureau sets the standard and cannot possibly be dealing in unscientific surveys. Therefore, their figures cannot be off as much as shown above. Statistical reliability could not possibly account for an error of one third of the population.
The question is how much of this immigration figure comes from sample error and how much from our immigration policies. When did a large number of these people arrive in the United States?
You might also remember that if you are a sheep farmer, the fences are down, and the neighbor's sheep are wandering into your territory youve got a much bigger flock to shear provided you can feed and keep them healthy.
Ill leave this with you to figure out. It gives me a headache.