September 14, 2004

If I was stuck on a desert island for the rest of my life there are a handful of books I would take with me. One of them, as I have mentioned several times, is Erik von Kuehnelt-Leddihn's Leftism Revisited, which I have been reading for over a decade and still have not exhausted.

Another which I have recently added to that list is Robert Axelrod's The Evolution of Cooperation, which deals with Game Theory. Although the book has been out for about 20 years, I only recently read it. Although many people may not be familiar with the book, to the extent most people have head of the term "Game Theory," it's because of the book's influence.

There is a lot in the book, but the only one I'll deal with here is Axelrod's idea that when people feel the game is over, there is no reason for them to cooperate with anyone.

Axelrod's idea is pretty much intuitive, and most people understand the truth of it. If someone feels the game is over, and they've won, why cooperate with anyone about anything?

When Axelrod's insight is applied to the current wars, the results are not particularly optimistic.

One of the reasons these wars are continuing is because of the influence of Christian Zionists, not only in the administration, but also in the public who are pressuring them to support Israel at all costs because they believe the Bible has foretold the End Times, which are supposed to be right around the corner. Israel is supposed to regain the territory it supposedly held thousands of years ago, Jesus will return, and the game is over.

Since these people believe the game is over (since they believe they can tell the future), there is no reason for them to cooperate with anyone. Hence the stubbornness of their side: "We know the future; we've won, so we will not cooperate with anyone."

Not surprisingly, their foes on the other side of the world think the same thing, only with them winning.

Bush and those in the administration who believe we were attacked because we are "good" and "they" are "evil" are doing a disservice to the entire world. We were attacked not because of our "goodness" but because of the behavior of the US government: blockading Iraq for over a decade, leading to the deaths of hundreds of thousands of people, supporting corrupt and repressive regimes in the Middle East for the last 50 years, supporting Israel no matter what it did, and having troops in Saudi Arabia.

The attack on the World Trade Center and the Pentagon was to draw the US into a guerrilla war in the Middle East, to bleed the US dry of blood and treasure, so we'd have to withdraw completely from the area. The US administration, unfortunately, has fallen right into the trap.

The only way the US can win a guerilla war is to kill everyone. Not just 2.5 to 3 million people, as was done in Vietnam, Cambodia and Laos, but everyone. And we're not going to do that.

Our opponents know this. They think they know the end of the game. They think the US will weary of losing men, equipment and money in the Middle East, and withdraw. So, since they think they know they end of the game, they're not going to cooperate, either.

I'm sure they've read the basic tactics in Sun Tzu's The Art of War. The first tactic is, "All warfare is based on deception." Then we have, "Hold out baits to lure the enemy," like flying airplanes into skyscrapers. Another is to make him fight on many fronts, like Afghanistan and Iraq. Still another is to make it a long war to impoverish the enemy's citizens.

Another one is to win battles without firing a shot ("those skilled in war subdue the enemy's army without battle"). Like getting the US to get rid of Saddam Hussein for them.

Then there is, "If he is arrogant, try to encourage his egotism."

What we have are two groups of people, each thinking they know the end of the game, each thinking they have already won, so neither is going to cooperate.

One of the first things that happens when people cease to cooperate, and conflict starts, is that the opposing groups start to define themselves as good and their opponents as evil. Everything is either good or bad, with nothing in between. It's the basis of propaganda.

Generally, the free market tends toward cooperation. The influence of the State invariably leads toward conflict and either-good-or-evil thinking.

What, then, will happen? In five or ten years the Christian Zionists, realizing Jesus isn't going to return anytime soon, will realize it is not yet the End of the Game. Finally, the US administration and public, weary of the loss of men and treasure, will start to withdraw from the Middle East. So, we're looking at several more years of these wars.

The hard-core Muslim fanatics, who are just as deluded as our Christian Zionists, will believe they have won. I doubt it. There are as many differences between the Sunni and Shia versions of Islam as there was between Catholics and Protestants in the Middle Ages. There has been war in the Middle East for the last 4000 years, and I don't see any end to it soon. I certainly don't see the US putting an end to it. "Pax Americana" is a delusion.

Just because someone thinks the game is over, and they have won, doesn't mean either is true. Too bad is takes some people decades to understand this. Their arrogance--hubris--and blindness will lead their respective societies straight into a ditch.

Lew Rockwell See Bob's archives there.

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If It Can Go Wrong...It Will

Rewriting the Past

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The Way It Should Have Been

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A Hole in the Head, Part I

Mapping George Bush's Head

The Not-So-Wild Wild West

Pledging to the Monster

The Tribe and the Outsider

New Cartoons for Old Stories

Satan the Politician

Wide Open Spaces

Many Thanks to the Fascists