September 06, 2004

Based upon a poll of “likely voters”, George W. Bush has opened up a nice, double-digit lead on opponent John Kerry following the Republican convention.

Or has he?

As I have been writing all along, the math indicates Kerry will still edge Bush on November 2nd, based upon my assessment of voters who have vowed never to vote for Bush again, and a very serious group that has emerged undetected by these polls: The normally apathetic 18 to 24 year old voters.

MTV has been running ads for a group that, on the surface, appears to merely urge the young crowd to vote, but their slogan leaves little doubt as to their leanings: “Vote or Die!” In other words, vote to elect anybody but Bush, or you will be drafted and sent to war to die.

I see these young voters as a real spoiler and wild card in the upcoming election. Their parents are mobilizing them to vote. Their schools are mobilizing them to vote. MTV is urging them to vote. But no polls that I know of are tracking them because they have heretofore been considered unlikely voters.

Not his time.

This time, their parents, their schools and their media are telling them this is a life or death election for them. Their parents and teachers are telling them how many of their own high school friends died in Viet Nam, or were wounded for life after they were drafted, and that our military cannot continue to be deployed as it is without reinstating the draft.

They are telling the young voters who will be 18 years of age or more by November 2nd that 58,000 American soldiers were killed in Viet Nam, thousands more wounded, and that we are now enjoying full diplomatic and trade relations with Communist Viet Nam – which means every single one of those sacrifices were made in vain. They are telling the young voters the truth that Bush let slip, and that is that a terrorist guerilla war cannot be won militarily – just like Viet Nam – and that we won’t win in Iraq for the same reasons.

They are telling these young ones to vote to protect their lives from a president whose family used privilege to protect him from serving in combat, when the same man is more than willing to send them to their deaths and dismemberment in some hell-hole he points to on a map.

They are telling these young voters that hiding out in the National Guard or running off to Canada will not be a safe haven like it was during the Viet Nam era. Legal steps have been taken to close those avenues of escape, and unlike the Viet Nam era, our troop shortages have required our National Guard to be deployed into foreign combat just like any other Army, Navy or Marine unit.

Vote, or die! There’s something rather motivating about that slogan, and it’s working. I know, because the young tell me it is, and not very many of them are voting for Bush.

Carl F. Worden

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